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Friday, April 24, 2026

The Trump poll numbers problem

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One of the most interesting people I've gotten to know in recent months on the Tom Woods Show has been Rich Baris, who chairs the National Association of Independent Pollsters.

Rich, himself a Trump voter, has been tracking Trump's declining numbers in recent months and commenting on the seemingly ceaseless stream of unforced errors on the President's part that have squandered so much of his political capital for no obvious return.

At any rate, we discussed the "Trump has 100 percent support among his base" poll -- as absurd, Rich says, as the Quinnipiac poll that tried to claim that zero percent of black Americans supported Trump -- as well as recent high-profile polls about Tucker Carlson, the war in Iran, and other topics, and assessed the claim that the war is in fact very popular and not the cause of Trump's fall in the polls.

A lot of people were surprised that Trump beat expectations in terms of support among Hispanic and black Americans in 2024. But Baris points out the interesting caveat here: the young tend to be more nonwhite. Trump's performance among those groups, then, was a function of his popularity among the young in general. He did do well among Hispanics -- under 50.

So with the young swinging so hard against Trump right now, that is a significant loss.

(Rich happens to be co-author of the forthcoming book Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want.)

You'll certainly find our conversation interesting:

https://tomwoods.com/ep-2753-where-did-trumps-poll-numbers-go/

As we head into the weekend: if you missed this week's info and Q&A session with the CrowdHealth CEO, here's the replay link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/gT8K6Knnz8FX1Nvc39D3UQXUoCr2BhMgtGYqFBQcq9Zkj6hwYOjD6StOtvWVLIFn.CMaDnPTfXW7xP592 Passcode is n96WZaa&

If you decide to join, use code TOM (instead of the usual WOODS) and I'll send you my quick-start guide where you'll see right into my app (and some of our crazy pregnancy bills -- the whole thing came to about $200,000).

There was bound to be a free-market alternative to the insane American health insurance system, and my wife and I are living proof that it absolutely works.

Tom Woods