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| Money Metals News Alert | June 23, 2025 – Gold and silver prices ended slightly lower in last week's trading and are trading sideways today.
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Markets have largely ignored the Israeli attack on Iran. However, there was a big rally in oil last night.
Stock prices last week ended down a bit, bond yields drifted slightly lower, and the dollar had modest gains versus other major currencies.
The U.S. joined in attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend and markets will be responding this week to the escalation.
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Buying demand for retail coins, rounds, and bars continues to be soft. Selling was plentiful as investors responded to silver hitting $37/oz and gold's new all time high at $3,433/oz.
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 | Gold : Silver Ratio (as of Friday's closing prices) – 93.1 to 1 | | |
| Complicated Price Discovery In Metals | | | |
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Price discovery for precious metals is complicated. There are several different markets for gold and silver.
These markets include the retail bullion market, the London spot market, and the COMEX futures market. | | |
Another market is called Exchange of Futures for Physical (EFP).
The EFP process was developed as a means for institutional investors to swap contracts for actual bars outside of the regular COMEX delivery process. EFP insulates the highly leveraged and volatile COMEX market during periods of low supply and high demand for COMEX bars.
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For example, buyers who needed to deliver 1,000 oz silver bars early in the year paid as much as $1/oz more than the current London spot price. Institutional investors transferred tons of metal from London to the U.S. to meet the enormous demand for deliverable bars in the U.S.
Retail investors who wanted to sell were left out, unable to capture that premium in either of the markets they had access to.
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| How Does Exchange of Futures for Physical (EFP) Work? | | |
In EFP trade, one party swaps a futures contract with another party who has actual physical bars. They make the swap without going through the usual COMEX process where the buyer purchases a contract and then stands for delivery of bars from the seller.
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The swap still gets recorded by the exchange and the trade is ultimately cleared by the exchange, but prices are negotiated privately between the two parties.
The parties get the protection of COMEX oversight, rules, and enforcement but they don't have to enter the open market for price discovery.
This is the important bit.
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The trade is negotiated between institutions who have bars available and the institutions who need them right away – like manufacturers who need silver as a component for their production.
It is done without the influence of smaller speculators or the retail public reading the signals about supply and demand and jumping in.
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| It's Hard to Read the Signals | | |
There is lots of confusion. Many bullion investors are watching gold and silver prices go higher and assume demand for retail bullion products must be strong.
The truth is buying demand in the U.S. has been muted, and there are plenty of sellers.
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Dealer inventories of coins, rounds and bars are plentiful.
The best way to gauge supply and demand in the retail bullion markets is by watching premiums. Those are at the lowest levels in years.
Physical demand for larger exchange-sized bars did surge early in the year as institutional buyers scrambled for inventory, but retail investors had no way to participate.
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The COMEX prices for gold and silver can't be counted on to reflect either weak demand from retail nor strong demand from institutions, and same with the reverse.
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| This week's Market Update was authored by Money Metals Director Clint Siegner. | | |
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| This copyrighted material may not be republished without express permission. Offer only available through email promotion. Offer does not apply to previous orders and may not be combined with any other offer or program. Special shipping rates or other restrictions may apply to international orders. The information presented here is for general educational purposes only. Money Metals Exchange and its staff do not act as personal investment advisors. Nor do we advocate the purchase or sale of any regulated security listed on any exchange for any specific individual. While our track record is excellent, investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no assurance of future profits. You are responsible for your investment decisions, and they should be made in consultation with your own advisors. By purchasing from Money Metals, you understand our company is not responsible for any losses caused by your investment decisions, nor do we have any claim to any market gains you may enjoy. Money Metals Exchange is not a regulated trading "exchange" as defined by the CFTC and the SEC. | | |
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