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This Week's Bonus Story
Anthropic's IPO Could Put Amazon's and Alphabet's Paper Profits to the TestAuthored by Ryan Hasson. First Published: 10/1/2026. 
Key Points
- Unrealized paper gains from Anthropic stakes have significantly boosted recent quarterly profits at both Amazon and Alphabet, often exceeding their operating income.
- An Anthropic IPO would expose these stakes to volatile public market pricing, potentially turning past paper gains into future paper losses.
- Beyond equity ownership, Amazon and Alphabet both supply Anthropic with cloud and chip infrastructure, generating separate recurring revenue regardless of its valuation swings.
- Special Report: Elon’s $912 billion bet
Anthropic has not yet officially filed a public prospectus for its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), but the AI startup is already quietly reshaping the earnings of two of the world's largest companies. Both Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) are major backers of Anthropic. As the AI firm's private valuation has soared, the paper value of those stakes has flowed directly into their bottom lines.
The easy, straightforward interpretation is that this represents a windfall. The more important one is that a public listing would turn that one-way boost into a two-way street. A Markup, Not a SaleThe numbers are simply staggering. Amazon's first-quarter net income included $16.8 billion in pretax gains from its Anthropic investments. In the second quarter, its net income included $53.4 billion in nonoperating pretax income, which the company said came primarily from Anthropic. For perspective, Amazon's operating income for the quarter was $27.5 billion. In other words, the paper gain on its Anthropic stake was nearly double what the entire sprawling business, from AWS to retail and advertising, earned from operations. Alphabet tells a similar story. Its second-quarter other income reflected a net gain of almost $99 billion, primarily from net unrealized gains on its equity securities. That figure dwarfed the company's operating income of $40.8 billion for the same period and helped drive net income to $112.1 billion. It is worth noting that the $99 billion did not all come from Anthropic. It includes gains on other holdings, such as Alphabet's stake in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). Still, Anthropic's rising valuation is a meaningful part of the picture, and the broader point holds. A significant share of the reported profit came from investments being marked higher, not from selling ads or cloud services. Why a Public Price Changes EverythingHere is the catch that the windfall framing misses: These gains are, of course, unrealized. They reflect Anthropic's valuation in private funding rounds, adjusted on paper, with no money actually changing hands. As long as that valuation keeps climbing, the markups continue to pad earnings. But the moment Anthropic trades on a public exchange, both stakes will be tied to a live market price—one that can fall as easily as it rises. That would introduce volatility these companies have not had to contend with in the same way. A private valuation gets reset periodically, and almost always upward during a hot, long-running bull market. A public stock reprices every second of every trading day. If Anthropic lists and its shares later slide, Amazon and Alphabet could be forced to book sizable paper losses in a future quarter—the mirror image of the gains inflating earnings today. The same accounting rule that has been a tailwind could become a headwind. Both Companies Wear 2 HatsAmazon and Alphabet are not only significant owners of Anthropic; they are also suppliers to the company. Anthropic runs its Claude models across a multicloud setup, and both giants sell it the infrastructure needed to do so. Amazon remains Anthropic's primary training partner, and Anthropic has agreed to secure up to five gigawatts of Amazon's Trainium chips to train and run its models. Alphabet struck its own landmark deal with Anthropic to access up to roughly 1 million of Google's custom TPUs, bringing well over 1 gigawatt of computing capacity online in 2026. In both cases, the arrangement sends real, recurring cash revenue back to the parent through its cloud and custom-silicon businesses. That dual role matters because it works in each company's favor. Even if the value of their equity stakes swings once Anthropic becomes public, the underlying chip and cloud relationships will continue generating operating income regardless of where the stock trades. It is an important reminder that beneath the headline-grabbing paper gains lies a genuine, cash-generating business relationship between Anthropic and its two largest backers. What Investors Should Take AwayFor now, Amazon and Alphabet are enjoying the upside of owning a piece of one of the most valuable private companies in artificial intelligence. But investors should be careful not to mistake these markups for operational strength. Much of the recent profit growth at both firms reflects Anthropic's rising valuation, not the performance of their core businesses. Investors should consider these gains separately when evaluating how the underlying operations are performing. A public listing would bring transparency, finally putting a hard market price on these stakes. It would also bring volatility, converting a reliable source of paper profit into something far less predictable. When Anthropic finally files and lists, the market will not just be pricing a new AI company. It will also be setting the value of one of Amazon's and Alphabet's biggest recent profit drivers, for better or worse. . |
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