The VIX is pricing a quiet week. CPI and the big banks say otherwise.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Read online       Unsubscribe       A Calm VIX Is Lying To You About Next Week The bond market is near its most stressed level in 24 years, yet the market's fear gauge sits near the low end of its range. Bank earnings and September CPI land back-to-back next week, and you want your positioning set before either one hits. Dividend Yields (Sponsored) These Yields Come With Analyst Targets Above the Price One of the seven pays 6.3% and trades roughly 15% below Morningstar's $32 fair value estimate. Another pays 6.0% monthly while analysts moved targets to $22, $23 and $24 against a $20.44 share price. Income today, with a valuation gap that may still close. Get the full list free (By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from Trading Tips and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time. - Privacy Policy) The Big Picture Investments A $6.25 Billion Gift Is Expanding Children’s Access to Investing Nearly 70 million investment accounts have now been created for American children under the Trump Accounts program, including more than 60 million through automatic enrollment. Parents or guardians still need to claim the accounts before they can use them. Children born between 2025 and 2028 can qualify for a one-time $1,000 federal contribution. Families and employers can then add money over time, giving the accounts decades to benefit from investment growth potentially. Private Money Is Adding Billions Michael and Susan Dell have committed $6.25 billion to deposit $250 into accounts for 25 million children. Ten million accounts had already been funded by October 7, with the remainder expected to receive contributions by the end of the week. Dell Technologies is separately contributing $1,000 to eligible accounts for employees’ children, while other companies are beginning to offer similar contributions as workplace benefits. Early Investing Could Reshape Household Wealth Starting investment accounts during childhood gives savings much longer to compound before adulthood. The program could also broaden stock-market participation among households that historically held fewer financial assets. Long-term results will still depend heavily on whether families can keep contributing. Higher-income households generally have more disposable income available for investing, meaning automatic accounts alone may not erase existing wealth gaps. Even so, placing tens of millions of children into investment accounts represents a major experiment in building household wealth much earlier in life. Infrastructure America’s AI Boom May Need $1.5 Trillion in New Financing The artificial intelligence infrastructure boom may require about $1.5 trillion in external financing by 2028, according to Morgan Stanley. Companies are spending heavily on advanced chips, data centers, networking equipment, and the infrastructure needed to run increasingly powerful AI systems. Recent fundraising plans show the scale of the shift. SpaceX has explored roughly $40 billion in financing for Nvidia chips, while other large technology companies are also turning to loans and bond markets to fund AI expansion. Borrowing Costs Add Pressure Financing such large projects is becoming more expensive as long-term interest rates remain elevated. Companies taking on billions in new debt must generate enough future revenue to cover both construction costs and higher interest expenses. Investors are also asking harder questions about how quickly AI infrastructure can produce returns. Huge spending commitments can support growth, but they also increase financial risk if demand or revenue develops more slowly than expected. Investment Reaches Beyond Technology The buildout is already pulling money into construction, electrical equipment, semiconductor production, data centers, cooling systems, and power infrastructure. Those projects can support business investment and economic activity well beyond Silicon Valley. The scale of financing also means AI is becoming increasingly connected to the broader credit system. A $1.5 trillion funding requirement would make the technology boom not only a productivity story, but one of the largest corporate investment and borrowing cycles in the U.S. economy. Content Library Edge (Sponsored) A 10% Yield Funded By Licensing Documentaries to AI Labs One pick in our free report owns a factual-content library that AI labs are licensing — and licensing revenue jumped 48% year over year to $14.1 million last quarter. Net income hit a record $8.9 million. The stock trades at $3.55 and pays a dividend yielding about 10%. Click here to get the free report (By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from Trading Tips and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time. - Privacy Policy) Consumer Spending Americans Say Their Paychecks Are Losing the Cost-of-Living Race About two-thirds of Americans say their living costs are rising faster than their earnings, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. More than half said their cost of living had increased a lot during the past year. Official wage data paints a less dramatic picture, with hourly pay growth running roughly in line with consumer inflation. But that still means much of the increase in earnings is being absorbed by higher prices rather than improving household purchasing power. Consumers Are Cutting Back The pressure is beginning to change spending habits. About 63% of respondents said they are eating at restaurants less often, while 56% reported spending less on entertainment or streaming services. Housing costs add another burden. Mortgage rates are around 7.5%, while higher prices for food, transportation, and other everyday expenses continue to take a larger share of household income. Spending Strength Faces a Test Consumer spending remains the largest engine of the U.S. economy, making household purchasing power an important measure of whether growth can continue. So far, Americans have continued spending despite weak confidence and higher costs. But if wages merely keep pace with inflation while essential expenses stay elevated, discretionary spending could face increasing pressure across restaurants, retail, travel, and entertainment. Would you rather negative real interest rates (inflation above rates) or positive real rates even if growth slows? Negative real rates Positive real rates, even if growth slows Neither -- real rates near zero, split the difference Depends on whether I'm a saver or a borrower Metrics to Watch • 📊 10-Year Treasury Yield around the 5% line. It just hit its highest level since 2002. A push to fresh highs signals the selloff isn't done. A sustained move back under 5% is your first sign the bond market is calling the top. • 📈 September CPI lands Wednesday. August's headline ran 3.4% and core about 2.5%. A hotter headline with oil still elevated hands Waller his argument for another hike. A cooler core print gives long bonds room to rally. • 💹 Gold in the low $4,000s. Roughly flat on the year and about a quarter below its record high, even with a war and a fiscal bid behind it. Positive real yields are capping it. If yields roll over after CPI, gold is one of the first places you'll see it. • 🛢️ Brent Crude near the $100 line. Still carrying a meaningful war premium. A sustained break lower tells you Trump's no-strike messaging is sticking. A push to fresh highs re-anchors inflation expectations higher, which keeps pressure on bonds. • 🏛️ Fed Funds at 3.75% to 4.00%. That's after September's hike. With Waller publicly calling for more, position your fixed income for higher for longer and a possible 25 bps add at the Oct 27-28 meeting or in December. Market Movers • 🏛️ The bond rout. 10-year and 30-year yields at 24-year highs reshaped every valuation model this week, and Treasury lined up another coupon buyback to support the long end. Until yields decisively break lower, every rate-sensitive sector in your portfolio stays under pressure. • 🌍 Middle East risk premium. Tanker attacks in Hormuz at a wartime weekly high, fresh US sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet, and Iran vowing to block more routes. Trump pulled back the strike threat for political reasons, but the premium in oil isn't going away before the midterms. • 💵 Dollar near its 52-week high. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level in a year this week. A strong dollar grinds down US multinational earnings, and Q3 reports start next week. If you own big-cap names with heavy overseas revenue, expect the FX headwind to show up on the calls. • 📉 AI chip selloff. AI stocks sold off late in the week on OpenAI news, dragging the Nasdaq lower, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) among the hardest-hit names. This isn't the top, but you need to decide if your tech weighting assumes everything goes right from here. It probably does. Market Impacts • 📈 Equities. The S&P 500 set a record this week and is still sitting close to it, even with the 10-year near a 24-year high. But the late-week chip selloff and a soft week for Europe's Stoxx 600 tell you leadership is narrowing. A VIX in the mid-teens is too calm for what yields are doing. If you're fully invested, trim your winners before CPI prints. • 🏦 Bonds. The 10-year backed off after its midweek spike to a 24-year high, and Waller is still calling for more hikes. If you're buying duration, scale in. Don't go all-in before Wednesday's CPI. • 💱 Currencies. The dollar index is holding near its 52-week high. If you have unhedged non-US exposure, a strong dollar keeps eating into your returns. • 🛢️ Commodities. Gold is roughly flat on the year and silver is down double digits, while copper is up strongly in 2026 and trading close to its 52-week high. Crude still carries its war premium, and natural gas remains the laggard. This isn't a broad hard-asset boom: energy and copper are carrying it while precious metals stall. Be selective. December Eight Matters (Sponsored) Why December 8 Could Matter for Investors One analyst believes Elon Musk is preparing to launch the biggest project of his career — and says the key date is December 8. He claims the clues are already buried in government filings, along with one investment move he believes should be made before December 9. His full case is laid out in a free masterclass. See What Elon Filed Before December 8 Key Indicators to Watch • 📅 Monday, Oct 12, Columbus Day. The bond market is closed while stocks trade. Thin liquidity means any weekend headline out of the Gulf can move prices more than it should. • 📅 Tuesday, Oct 13, Big Bank Earnings Kickoff. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs report, alongside Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth. Net interest margins and loan-loss provisions tell you how well borrowers are handling 5% yields. • 📅 Wednesday, Oct 14, September CPI at 8:30 AM ET. August's headline ran 3.4% with core near 2.5%. This is the print of the week. A hot number strengthens the case for another hike and sends yields back toward their highs. A cool one gives the growth trade room to run. • 📅 Thursday, Oct 15, September Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET. With payrolls up just 29,000 last month, this tells you whether the consumer is still spending through higher fuel and borrowing costs. A miss feeds the stagflation story. • 📅 Tuesday-Wednesday, Oct 27-28, FOMC Meeting. The minutes put another hike on the table. If you hold long-duration or rate-sensitive stocks, this is the meeting that decides whether it comes now. Everything Else 📊 You don't have to choose between income and growth. See the stocks built to deliver multi-thousand-dollar payouts alongside real capital returns. 🌍 Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026, according to the UN, as higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions weigh on activity. 💰 China unveiled an $82 billion fiscal stimulus package, directing funds toward local governments and infrastructure to support its struggling economy. 📉 Pimco warned that 10-year U.S. Treasury yields could reach 6%, citing persistent inflation, rising government debt, and pressure on bond markets. 🏦 Fed official Alberto Musalem called for additional interest rate hikes, arguing that tighter policy is needed to return inflation to the central bank's 2% target. 💶 The euro has been sliding for weeks as concerns over France's finances and elevated U.S. bond yields continue to support the dollar. That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next. Best Regards, —Noah Zelvis Macro Notes   Macro Notes is a publication of Elite Trade Media LLC. Disclosure: Content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not investment advice. Do not base investment decisions on this newsletter. Securities mentioned may be owned by our owners or operators, which could affect our objectivity. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision. We may receive compensation from advertisers and affiliate links in this email, including for featured third-party offers. Macro Notes and its parent company are not registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, or financial planners. 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